By William Engdahl
The simmering conflict between Japan and China over three islands in the East China Sea has just gotten significantly closer to an open conflict.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has just given orders to shoot down any aircraft, including Chinese surveillance drones, flying over “Japanese airspace” that refuses to leave.
As Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is known to be very close to Washington, it suggests that the Obama administration has given Abe the green light.
On October 23, Abe gave orders to his Defense Ministry to shoot down any foreign drones that ignore warnings to leave Japanese airspace.
In a recent Wall Street Journal interview, Abe also said that a resurgent Japan will "take a more assertive leadership role in Asia to counter China's power" and be placed "at the helm of countries in the region nervous about Beijing's military buildup."
In response, Geng Yansheng, spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry, said that the training and flight of its military aircraft, including drones, over “relevant areas” of the East China Sea was in line with international law and practice.
Japanese patriots carry national flags and placards during an anti-China rally in Tokyo on September 18, 2012.
Following the Japanese orders to shoot down Chinese drones in its airspace, China sent four coastguard vessels to the disputed waters.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has just given orders to shoot down any aircraft, including Chinese surveillance drones, flying over “Japanese airspace” that refuses to leave.
As Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is known to be very close to Washington, it suggests that the Obama administration has given Abe the green light.
On October 23, Abe gave orders to his Defense Ministry to shoot down any foreign drones that ignore warnings to leave Japanese airspace.
In a recent Wall Street Journal interview, Abe also said that a resurgent Japan will "take a more assertive leadership role in Asia to counter China's power" and be placed "at the helm of countries in the region nervous about Beijing's military buildup."
In response, Geng Yansheng, spokesman for China’s Defense Ministry, said that the training and flight of its military aircraft, including drones, over “relevant areas” of the East China Sea was in line with international law and practice.
Japanese patriots carry national flags and placards during an anti-China rally in Tokyo on September 18, 2012.
Following the Japanese orders to shoot down Chinese drones in its airspace, China sent four coastguard vessels to the disputed waters.
The same day, China’s state-run Global Times wrote: “China has not been involved in war for a long time, but a war looms following Japan’s radical provocation.”
With the statements from the two sides, the situation is rapidly degenerating into a Mexican standoff where if either side capitulates, they lose face.
With the statements from the two sides, the situation is rapidly degenerating into a Mexican standoff where if either side capitulates, they lose face.
If both sides escalate, it could spell war and economic catastrophe for the region and for the entire world, especially if China is isolated.
Edward Luttwak, a former Pentagon consultant and neo-conservative at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies, notes that it is against the Japanese character to retreat.
Edward Luttwak, a former Pentagon consultant and neo-conservative at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies, notes that it is against the Japanese character to retreat.
He believes the Japanese will uphold orders to shoot down a Chinese drone if China tests the Japanese resolve.
At that point the focus is on China.
Luttwak remarked: “They’re playing with fire, but I cannot bring myself to believe that the Chinese leadership would actually cross the threshold.”
Luttwak remarked: “They’re playing with fire, but I cannot bring myself to believe that the Chinese leadership would actually cross the threshold.”
He believes one of two things are behind China’s threats.
“Either the Chinese government has taken leave of its senses,” or they’re using an age-old Chinese strategy “that you win by clever theatrical displays.”
“Either the Chinese government has taken leave of its senses,” or they’re using an age-old Chinese strategy “that you win by clever theatrical displays.”
He added, “The tiny shooting incident would initiate a chain of major economic consequences. It would bring to an end the cycle of Chinese prosperity.”
In early September 2012, the Japanese government of Abe’s predecessor, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, announced that it had decided to buy several islands in an uninhabited island chain called the Senkakus.
Thereby, Japan asserted its claim to all subsea rights surrounding the island group.
Thereby, Japan asserted its claim to all subsea rights surrounding the island group.
The area around the islands is believed to hold huge deposits of vital oil and gas that could ease Chinese oil import dependence.
According to Kenichiro Sasae, Japan's ambassador to Washington, "The US government has made it clear that the islands are covered by the Japan-US Security Treaty."
Sasae added that when Tokyo asked Washington’s views on whether Japan’s government should officially buy the islands, "The United States did not raise any opposition” to the move, he said. The US stance “was that it is a matter for Japan to decide."
That US stance echoes very ominously the provocative stance that US Ambassador to Iraq, April Glaspie, was told to deliver to Iraq’s Saddam Hussein days before Hussein decided to invade Kuwait, when she conveyed the message from Washington’s Bush administration that whatever happened between Kuwait and Iraq was between those two countries and of little interest to Washington.
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