The U.S. capitulation undermines Japan, Washington’s most important ally in Asia.
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Hong KongWhen US B-52s roared their engines above the Senkaku Islands last Tuesday, the Japanese government viewed the move as a loud and clear message to China over its controversial new East China Sea air defence zone.
The right-leaning Yomiuri, Japan’s biggest daily newspaper, went as far as to claim that “China’s diplomatic isolation is becoming complete”.
But the mood shifted on Friday when the US urged its commercial airlines to comply with China’s “air defence identification zone” (ADIZ).
“The signal the US is sending to China and the region is confusing which is not a good thing,” said Chikako Ueki, an Asia security expert at Waseda University.
“The message had been that you cannot change the status quo by force... The key question is whether the US is going to be the defender of freedom of the sea and air, the so-called global commons, as it says.”
With US vice-president Joe Biden arriving in Japan on Monday for a scheduled visit, Ms Ueki said it was “important that the US sends a clear signal to China and to the region”, adding that the mood in Japan was now very negative towards Beijing.
From Washington to Tokyo to Seoul, countries with stakes in the Pacific expressed dismay when China unveiled its ADIZ without consultations.
“The signal the US is sending to China and the region is confusing which is not a good thing,” said Chikako Ueki, an Asia security expert at Waseda University.
“The message had been that you cannot change the status quo by force... The key question is whether the US is going to be the defender of freedom of the sea and air, the so-called global commons, as it says.”
With US vice-president Joe Biden arriving in Japan on Monday for a scheduled visit, Ms Ueki said it was “important that the US sends a clear signal to China and to the region”, adding that the mood in Japan was now very negative towards Beijing.
From Washington to Tokyo to Seoul, countries with stakes in the Pacific expressed dismay when China unveiled its ADIZ without consultations.
While many nations use ADIZs as aerial early warning systems, China’s zone covered the Japanese Senkaku and overlapped with Japan’s ADIZ.
The US statement on commercial airlines made clear that Washington did not accept China’s requirements for the ADIZ, but it went down badly in Tokyo, particularly because the government last week forced JAL and ANA to reverse course after the Japanese carriers started providing China with flight plans for the ADIZ.
Some experts have suggested that the move could be interpreted as the US caving in to China, and in doing so undermining Japan, Washington’s most important ally in Asia.
“On the surface, it looks like they have done that,” said Robert Manning, an Asia expert at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.
The US statement on commercial airlines made clear that Washington did not accept China’s requirements for the ADIZ, but it went down badly in Tokyo, particularly because the government last week forced JAL and ANA to reverse course after the Japanese carriers started providing China with flight plans for the ADIZ.
Some experts have suggested that the move could be interpreted as the US caving in to China, and in doing so undermining Japan, Washington’s most important ally in Asia.
“On the surface, it looks like they have done that,” said Robert Manning, an Asia expert at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security.
“Biden is going to have to answer for it. The Japanese are not particularly happy about this.”
But Mr Manning said Washington may have felt compelled to prioritise commercial safety to avoid an accident like the one in 1983 when the Soviet Union shot down a Korean Airlines flight that breached its airspace.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe played down the US statement, saying that Washington had informed Japan through diplomatic channels that it had not advised US airlines to comply with the Chinese zone.
But Mr Manning said Washington may have felt compelled to prioritise commercial safety to avoid an accident like the one in 1983 when the Soviet Union shot down a Korean Airlines flight that breached its airspace.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe played down the US statement, saying that Washington had informed Japan through diplomatic channels that it had not advised US airlines to comply with the Chinese zone.
A Japanese foreign ministry spokesman said Tokyo did not believe that the US had asked its commercial airlines to provide the Chinese with flight plans.
Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies at Temple University, said Mr Biden would have his “work cut out . . . to smooth Abe’s ruffled feathers”.
He said the US vice-president would need to encourage Mr Abe not to respond to China’s move by paying a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial memorial to Japan’s war dead that infuriates China.
Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies at Temple University, said Mr Biden would have his “work cut out . . . to smooth Abe’s ruffled feathers”.
He said the US vice-president would need to encourage Mr Abe not to respond to China’s move by paying a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial memorial to Japan’s war dead that infuriates China.
But he added that while Mr Abe has protested at the Chinese move, privately the nationalist Japanese leader – who is scheduled to unveil a new defence programme later in December – may have welcomed the new ADIZ.
“I am sure that Abe privately gave a very big thank you to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping because this has put wind in his sails,” said Mr Kingston.
While Washington has come under some criticism for the statement on commercial aviation, Mr Kingston said the US had been put in a “tricky position” as it has its own ADIZ, even if the rules are different from China’s.
“You don’t want to reinforce the narrative in China that the big bad west is trying to keep us down,” he said.
“I am sure that Abe privately gave a very big thank you to [Chinese President] Xi Jinping because this has put wind in his sails,” said Mr Kingston.
While Washington has come under some criticism for the statement on commercial aviation, Mr Kingston said the US had been put in a “tricky position” as it has its own ADIZ, even if the rules are different from China’s.
“You don’t want to reinforce the narrative in China that the big bad west is trying to keep us down,” he said.
Many also point out that China is forcing airlines flying through the zone to file flight plans, even when their final destination is not mainland China.
A spokesman for South Korea’s defence ministry said that the US had not talked to Seoul about the advice given to US commercial airlines on compliance with the Chinese air defence zone.
James Kim, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said that the US, South Korea and Japan risked “undermining each other’s position on these issues by sending mixed messages”, adding that all sides of the dispute appeared to be “testing how far the other side is willing to go”.
Gary Li, a senior analyst at IHS Maritime in Beijing, said the US was “not necessarily pulling the rug out” from under Japan and South Korea – whose airlines are also not complying with the Chinese ADIZ – but that the move “definitely makes the Chinese position stronger”.
A spokesman for South Korea’s defence ministry said that the US had not talked to Seoul about the advice given to US commercial airlines on compliance with the Chinese air defence zone.
James Kim, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said that the US, South Korea and Japan risked “undermining each other’s position on these issues by sending mixed messages”, adding that all sides of the dispute appeared to be “testing how far the other side is willing to go”.
Gary Li, a senior analyst at IHS Maritime in Beijing, said the US was “not necessarily pulling the rug out” from under Japan and South Korea – whose airlines are also not complying with the Chinese ADIZ – but that the move “definitely makes the Chinese position stronger”.
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