Any Asian country trying to preserve its hold on remote territory coveted by China, the region’s increasingly powerful and assertive giant, faces a daunting challenge.
For Japan, the task of retaining control of the disputed Senkaku Islands is especially fraught – as the delicately orchestrated visit to Tokyo by US vice-president Joe Biden highlighted this week.
On Tuesday, Mr Biden reiterated US criticism of China’s decision to declare an “air defence identification zone” over much of the East China Sea, including the Japanese Senkaku.
But he stopped short of joining Japan in calling for the zone’s removal – disappointing some Japanese officials.
Japan’s unusual security arrangements, under which its defence is largely outsourced to Washington, mean it must read the intentions of two different countries in managing the dispute: China, the adversary that is trying to wrest the islands away, and the US, the "ally" that is supposed to protect them.
Japan’s unusual security arrangements, under which its defence is largely outsourced to Washington, mean it must read the intentions of two different countries in managing the dispute: China, the adversary that is trying to wrest the islands away, and the US, the "ally" that is supposed to protect them.
Neither is always easy.
Japanese officials say their biggest worry is that China will strengthen its influence over the islands in steps so gradual that no single move invites a decisive response, but that ultimately adds up to a change of de facto control.
Washington, not surprisingly, is setting the bar for action especially high – it is keen to avoid conflict with China over what many Americans would see as a few inconsequential Japanese rocks.
China has been employing a similar strategy elsewhere, in what one well known Chinese navy officer has dubbed the “cabbage strategy” to wrest control of the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines – surrounding the area in thin layers until it is eventually enveloped.
“It’s very obvious that they’re doing the same thing they did in the South China Sea,” says one Japanese foreign policy official.
Japanese officials say their biggest worry is that China will strengthen its influence over the islands in steps so gradual that no single move invites a decisive response, but that ultimately adds up to a change of de facto control.
Washington, not surprisingly, is setting the bar for action especially high – it is keen to avoid conflict with China over what many Americans would see as a few inconsequential Japanese rocks.
China has been employing a similar strategy elsewhere, in what one well known Chinese navy officer has dubbed the “cabbage strategy” to wrest control of the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines – surrounding the area in thin layers until it is eventually enveloped.
“It’s very obvious that they’re doing the same thing they did in the South China Sea,” says one Japanese foreign policy official.
“First they send fishing boats, then survey boats, and finally the military to guard their national assets.”
The Senkaku conflict flared up in 2012 after Japan’s government purchased three of the islands from their private owner, prompting China to accuse it of hatching its own plot to assert more control.
The Senkaku conflict flared up in 2012 after Japan’s government purchased three of the islands from their private owner, prompting China to accuse it of hatching its own plot to assert more control.
Since then, however, Tokyo has been at pains to avoid escalating the dispute.
Before he came to power a year ago, Shinzo Abe had suggested Japan might station soldiers or government workers on the islands, a step that would infuriate Beijing.
Before he came to power a year ago, Shinzo Abe had suggested Japan might station soldiers or government workers on the islands, a step that would infuriate Beijing.
That idea was shelved once he became premier, but some worry that nationalist pressure could mount on Mr Abe if US and Japanese protests fail to deter Beijing.
“He will be accused by some of lacking backbone,” the official said.
“He will be accused by some of lacking backbone,” the official said.
“When it comes to a critical point, we may have to act.”
Another high-ranking Japanese official familiar with Mr Abe’s thinking said Tokyo would have “rejoiced” if Mr Biden had sent a stronger message to China.
But he added that there was a “common sense” that putting too much pressure on him ahead of his Beijing visit – he arrived on Wednesday – would have been counterproductive.
While the US does not take a position on the sovereignty of the Senkaku, Washington has made clear that they fall under the auspices of the US-Japan security treaty because they are under Japanese administrative control.
But the official said it was clear that China’s strategy was to produce an outcome where “one day in the future, the Japanese assertion of administrative control will appear questionable”.
While the US does not take a position on the sovereignty of the Senkaku, Washington has made clear that they fall under the auspices of the US-Japan security treaty because they are under Japanese administrative control.
But the official said it was clear that China’s strategy was to produce an outcome where “one day in the future, the Japanese assertion of administrative control will appear questionable”.
Once that happens, he adds, “it is easy for China to assume that if the Senkaku are not under Japanese administrative control, the US will have to have second thoughts” about defending the islands.
With few concrete options to respond to Chinese pressure, Mr Abe has been trying to build alliances with other Asia-Pacific countries concerned about the consequences of China’s rise.
With few concrete options to respond to Chinese pressure, Mr Abe has been trying to build alliances with other Asia-Pacific countries concerned about the consequences of China’s rise.
He visited southeast Asia earlier this year, is scheduled to make a trip to India – which has its own border disputes with China – in January, and is expected to visit Australia in 2014.
Japan has been bolstering its coast guard and shifting its military assets toward its southwestern seas, away from the north of the country where they had been concentrated during the cold war against the Soviet Union.
The latest update of its national defence strategy, due to be announced this month, is expected to continue the trend.
Japan patrols the Senkaku by sea and air 24 hours a day, but the efforts of the Japanese coast guard and military benefit from the presence of the US navy in the region, including in the East China Sea.
Japan patrols the Senkaku by sea and air 24 hours a day, but the efforts of the Japanese coast guard and military benefit from the presence of the US navy in the region, including in the East China Sea.
The Japanese official close to Mr Abe said it was important that Japan extend independent efforts to maintain control.
“Of course, Japan wants the US to commit to protect the Senkaku, but at the end of the day the islands are our own territory, so the Japanese government is now attempting to protect them,” he said.
“Of course, Japan wants the US to commit to protect the Senkaku, but at the end of the day the islands are our own territory, so the Japanese government is now attempting to protect them,” he said.
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