Joe Biden: The Bull in the China Shop

The vice president creates waves with comments in China, but he was right to make them.
By Elizabeth C. Economy

In the midst of an already diplomatically challenging trip to Japan, China, and South Korea, U.S. vice president Joe Biden managed to make life just that much more difficult for himself. 

The vice president had a number of thorny issues already on his agenda, such as advancing the cause of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, discussing how to make progress on North Korea, trying to get Japan and South Korea on the same page, and most importantly, trying to persuade Beijing to step back and renounce its establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that overlapped with the pre-established ADIZs of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan or at the very least, to avoid declaring any new ADIZs.
Despite this full plate of unenviable tasks, Vice President Biden couldn’t resist igniting a mini-media firestorm in Beijing when, in the name of creativity and innovation, he called on young Chinese seeking to visit the United States to “challenge the government, challenge your teachers, challenge religious leaders.” 

He went on to praise the importance of new immigrants to the United States in reinvigorating “the spirit of America” and reinforced that “stamped in the DNA of every American” is an “inherent rejection of orthodoxy.”
At first glance, his remarks seem at best impolitic, at worst downright harmful to the overall cause of furthering cooperation with China. 

Yet, upon further reflection—which the vice president may or may not have undertaken prior to uttering his call to arms—his comments signaled one of the most important policy thrusts of the entire visit.
As China cracks down politically at home and promulgates its own ideals abroad through its Confucius Institutes and state-run media, it matters that U.S. officials reiterate American political values. 

Not doing so in an effort to appease Chinese sensibilities not only is craven but also doesn’t win any favors from Beijing. 

This past week during his own visit to China, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron showered nothing but praise upon his Chinese hosts; in return he earned a scathing editorial in the Global Times and was forced to stand by and watch as one of his journalist countrymen was barred from his press conference with Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

Similarly, when Bloomberg fired star reporter Michael Forsythe in November—apparently for leaking to the New York Times that Bloomberg was kowtowing to Chinese pressure by holding back on the publication of a politically sensitive piece—the news corporation was rewarded with nothing better than visits by Chinese police to their newsrooms in Beijing and Shanghai.
In fact, Vice President Biden took on the issue of Chinese treatment of U.S. journalists and media companies directly in his talks with Chinese president Xi Jinping. 

U.S. media companies have long been stymied in their efforts to report openly and critically on China for fear of reprisals from Beijing. 

As Mark Landler reported in the New York Times, nearly two dozen New York Times and Bloomberg journalists are awaiting accreditation from Beijing; without it they will be expelled, effectively shutting down their China bureaus. 

The question now is whether the U.S. government will take further steps to pressure China on this issue. Would Washington be willing to delay the visas of Chinese journalists? 

Is there an issue of market access that could be advanced through the World Trade Organization? 

It may seem foolish to risk the overall relationship with China for such issues: The ADIZ, for example, represents a more immediate threat to regional security than access to China for U.S. journalists. 

However, the political values the vice president is advancing—transparency, openness, and accountability—in the final analysis are reflected not only in the way that China does business at home but also in how it behaves abroad. 

Biden is right to hold China to account on both fronts.

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Biden Condemns China Air Zone

By YUKA HAYASHI 

TOKYO—Providing assurance to an ally facing an spiraling territorial dispute with its powerful neighbor, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden strongly condemned China's recent decision to establish a new air defense zone over the contentious waters of the East China Sea Tuesday as he warned that "the prospects of miscalculations and mistakes are too high."
Mr. Biden urged China and Japan to create a crisis management mechanism and open the channels of communications to reduce the risk of unintended conflict. 

He noted he would raise these concerns "in specificity and directly" when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders on Wednesday.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (L) speaks while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe listens during a joint announcement after their talks at the latter's official residence. European Pressphoto Agency

"We in the U.S. are deeply concerned by the attempt to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea," Mr. Biden told reporters in Tokyo, standing next to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after their meeting. 

"This action has raised regional tensions and increased the risk of accidents and miscalculations."
Mr. Biden's comment underscores how quickly efforts to diffuse tensions and avoid unwanted conflict have become the focus of Washington's diplomatic effort in East Asia. 

As Mr. Xi consolidates power nine months after taking office, Beijing is pursuing increasingly bold strategies to assert its territorial claims against its smaller neighbors. 

That has overshadowed the original goals of Mr. Biden's long-planned trip to emphasize the commitment of the administration of President Barack Obama to rebalance its policy and resources toward Asia and promote trade ties.
Mr. Biden reassured Mr. Abe that the U.S. will remain "steadfast to our alliance commitment" but also pushed the conservative Japanese leader to make greater efforts to get along with the country's neighbors.
"It is also important to see closer cooperation between our allies, Japan and South Korea, and between our allies and China," he said. 

"I witnessed first-hand and appreciated greatly the outreach (Mr. Abe) has made to Japan's neighbors. It's not only in Japan's interest but in our interest as well."
The trip will also take Mr. Biden to South Korea, where he is expected to urge President Park Geun-hye, a stubborn critic of Mr. Abe's government, to start a dialogue.

Relations between Japan and South Korea have been chilled by differences over Japan's wartime behavior, and by a territorial spat—a situation that has irked U.S. officials as they tried to manage China's flexing of its military muscle and North Korean threats to develop nuclear weapons.

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China’s creeping ‘cabbage’ strategy

The pattern has become familiar: Construct a dispute, initiate a jurisdictional claim through periodic incursions, and then increase the frequency and duration of such intrusions, thereby establishing a military presence or pressuring a rival to cut a deal on China’s terms.

By Brahma Chellaney

China’s growing geopolitical heft is emboldening its territorial creep in Asia. 

After laying claim to 80 percent of the South China Sea, it has just established a so-called air defense identification zone in the East China Sea, raising the odds of armed conflict with Japan and threatening the principle of freedom of navigation of the seas and skies.
Meanwhile, China continues to nibble furtively at territory across the long, disputed Himalayan border with India.
Few seem to fathom the logic behind China’s readiness to take on several neighbors simultaneously. 

China is seeking to alter the “status quo” gradually as part of a high-stakes effort to extend its control to strategic areas and resources. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 習近平 promise of national greatness — embodied in the catchphrase “China dream” — is tied as much to achieving regional hegemony as to internal progress.
China’s approach reflects what the Chinese general Zhang Zhaozhong 張召忠 this year called a “cabbage” strategy: Assert a territorial claim and gradually surround the area with multiple layers of security, thus denying access to a rival. 

The strategy relies on a steady progression of steps to outwit opponents and create new facts on the ground.
This approach severely limits rival states’ options by confounding their deterrence plans and making it difficult for them to devise proportionate or effective counter-measures. 

This is partly because the strategy — while bearing all the hallmarks of modern Chinese brinkmanship, including reliance on stealth, surprise and a disregard for the risks of military escalation — seeks to ensure that the initiative remains with China.
The pattern has become familiar: Construct a dispute, initiate a jurisdictional claim through periodic incursions, and then increase the frequency and duration of such intrusions, thereby establishing a military presence or pressuring a rival to cut a deal on China’s terms.
What is ours is ours, the Chinese invariably claim, and what is yours is negotiable. 

For example, China says “no foundation for dialogue” with Japan exists unless the Japanese accept the existence of a territorial dispute over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands.
Here, as elsewhere, China has painted its rival as the obstructionist party.
As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi 王毅 put it, “Japan needs to recognize that there is such a dispute. The whole world knows that there is a dispute.” 

However, there is a dispute only because China has succeeded in shaking the “status quo” in recent years by popularizing the islands’ Chinese name and staging incursions into their territorial waters and airspace.
After steadily increasing the frequency of those incursions since September last year, China has recently begun increasing their duration. 

The establishment of a new air defense identification zone extending over the islands is its latest cabbage-style security “layer” — a unilateral power grab that US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel quickly branded “a destabilizing attempt to alter the status quo in the region.”
The zone even covers the sky over the South Korean Ieodo Reef.
As China escalates its campaign of attrition against a resolute Japan, it increases the risk of armed conflict, whether by accident or miscalculation.

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China's ADIZ undermines regional stability

By Bonnie S Glaser

China established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)" effective as of 10 am on November 23. 

China's Ministry of National Defense also announced Aircraft Identification Rules for the ADIZ, which include a warning that "defensive emergency measures" would be adopted to respond to aircraft that refuse to follow the instructions.
The zone overlaps the existing ADIZ of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. China's ADIZ also covers the Japanese Senkaku Islands.

One day following the announcement, China conducted two aerial patrols over the area; its aircraft were intercepted by Japan Air Self Defense Force (ASDF) fighter jets.
All nations have the right to establish reasonable conditions of entry into their territory. 

An ADIZ is a declaration of a perimeter within which unidentified aircraft can be intercepted and prevented from illegally proceeding to enter national airspace. 

It serves essentially as a national defense boundary for aerial incursions. 

There are no international rules or laws that determine the size of an ADIZ. 

Over 20 nations have an ADIZ, including the United States, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan in the West Pacific. 

ADIZs typically are much more extensive then a country's territorial airspace.
Why did China establish an ADIZ? 

China's PLA spokesman claimed that its action is "a necessary measure taken by China in exercising its self-defense right," and that "it is not directed against any specific country or target." 

However, the decision to declare an East China Sea ADIZ is likely aimed at strengthening Beijing's claim over the Japanese islands in the East China Sea. 

This move follows on China's September 2012 submission to the United Nations of baselines to demarcate a territorial sea around the islands.
China may also be responding to recent Japanese warnings that it reserves the right to shoot down unmanned drones that pose a threat to Japanese airspace. 

By creating an ADIZ that includes the Senkaku Islands, Beijing may believe it has established a basis for challenging and, if necessary, taking action against Japanese aircraft operating in this zone. 

The ADIZ may also signal a Chinese intention to increase flights in the territorial airspace around the disputed islands as a demonstration of its sovereignty and jurisdictional claim. 

China has only flown an aircraft in the territorial airspace around the island once, in February 2013, when a civilian maritime surveillance Y-12 aircraft entered the airspace.
Beijing may also seek to collect and publish data on the number of times that Chinese jets scramble to intercept Japanese fighters that enter into its ADIZ. 

Japan already publishes data on "intrusions" by Chinese and Russian aircraft; China may see benefits in demonstrating to its domestic audience that the party and military are doing their utmost to defend Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity.
China's action exacerbates tensions in ongoing disputes and creating friction in the region where none or little existed. 

It further increases tension in the territorial row between China and Japan at a time when that bilateral relationship is already severely strained. 

Moreover, it heightens the risk of an accident. 

There is a very large overlap between China's ADIZ and Japan's ADIZ. 

When aircraft from either country fly in this overlapping area, the other side is likely to scramble fighters and intercept the intruder. 

If intercepts are not conducted safely and in accordance with international norms, a collision is possible. Recall that in 2001 a Chinese fighter jet that was conducting aggressive intercepts collided with a US surveillance plane, which resulted in the Chinese pilot's death, the forced landing of the US EP-3 on Hainan island where its 24-member crew was held for 11 days, and a crisis in US-China relations.
China's ADIZ also encompasses portions of Ieodo Island and Jeju Island, which are part of South Korea, and overlaps with the Korean ADIZ in a wide swath that is 20 kilometers wide and 115 km long. 

The South Korean government expressed its regret about the Chinese government's decision. 

The newly announced ADIZ also overlaps with Taiwan's ADIZ, prompting the government in Taipei to issue a statement that included a pledge that Taiwan's armed forces would ensure the safety of the country's airspace, and urged all parties to "avoid actions that could escalate confrontation in the region."
Moreover, China's Aircraft Identification Rules make no distinction between aircraft flying parallel with China's coastline through the ADIZ and those flying toward China's territorial airspace. 

Secretary of State Kerry highlighted this issue in his statement, saying that the US "does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter US national airspace," implying that the US would not recognize China's claimed right to take action against aircraft that are not intending to enter its national airspace. 

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel stated that the US would not change the way it conducts military operations in the region.
Some Chinese may believe that aggressive intercepts against a Japanese aircraft in air space near the Senkakus would not provoke a US response since Washington is neutral on the issue of sovereignty over the islands. 

Secretary Hagel's statement reaffirming that Article V of the US-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the disputed islands is important in this regard and should prevent Chinese miscalculation.
At one fell swoop, Beijing's ADIZ decision has injected new problems into its ties with South Korea, Taiwan and the US, further soured relations with Japan, and frightened smaller nations in Southeast Asia. 

It appears that Xi Jinping, who by all accounts has emerged stronger from the recently held Chinese Communist Party Third Plenum, is willing to fan the flames of nationalism so he can ensure the party's popularity as he tackles economic reform at home.

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Spat over air space lost on ordinary Chinese

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Captured US jets and wrecked U2 spy planes, permanently grounded at the Military Museum of the Chinese People’s Revolution in west Beijing, offer a stark reminder of the brutal history of the 20th century.
Yet current geopolitical tensions, sparked by China’s unilateral declaration of an “air defence identification zone” over much of the East China Sea, appear to be lost on today’s visitors to the vast museum hangers with their detritus of war.
“I don’t know what you’re talking about; I’ve never heard of such a thing,” said Mr Jie, 40, who was visiting the museum on Sunday from nearby Hebei Province, when asked what he thought of China’s new air defence zone, unveiled by China on November 23.
The new zone’s significance may be lost on Mr Jie but it has rattled China’s neighbours as it overlaps with one established by Japan in the 1960s and because it covers the Japanese Senkaku islands.
Two 19-year-old Beijing men at the museum, asking to remain anonymous, said they had heard about the new zone from state media reports but that those reports lacked detail and had not explained much of the background.
“I’m not so sure why we have set this zone up; maybe it has something to do with the Senkaku islands?” one of the young men speculated, correctly.
Their hazy grasp of the facts is understandable. 

In stark contrast to previous rounds of territorial conflict with Japan or smaller neighbours in the South China Sea, China’s tightly-controlled state media have largely airbrushed the issue from the news agenda.
As a consequence, there have been none of the mass outpourings of anti-Japanese or anti-foreign venom that spilled over into large, government-sanctioned street protests late last year after Tokyo bought some of the uninhabited islands from their private Japanese owner.
On Sunday afternoon, the issue of the new air defence zone did not even rank in the top 30 most popular topics on Sina Weibo, the Chinese equivalent of Twitter, which is blocked by China’s “great firewall” censorship regime.
In the sub-category of current affairs, the topic only made it to number seven on the most popular list. Indeed, the most popular topic in the Weibo current affairs sub-category was a series of newly published details about a domestic aircraft crash that happened in 2010.
Chinese netizens’ lukewarm interest in the subject reflects Beijing’s decision to keep the issue for the most part out of the public eye.
Employees of popular online news sites say they received telephone instructions from propaganda authorities ordering them not to publish any reports on the matter apart from short factual pieces issued by centrally-controlled state media.
An explicit ban was issued on any non-sanctioned reports mentioning the US decision to send B-52 bombers through the newly-established zone.
Over the weekend, state media were far more focused on reporting the imminent launch of China’s first moon landing probe and on Friday, China’s foreign ministry spokesman said the new air defence zone “will not cause regional tensions”, according to state media.
On Sunday, the official Xinhua news agency did report that US airlines have, on advice from the US government, agreed to China’s demands to provide all flight information for aircraft passing through the new zone.
But the report did not mention that the major airlines of Japan and South Korea are refusing to provide that information to Beijing, following instructions from their governments.
Analysts say Beijing appears confident the issue will blow over quickly, leaving it in a stronger position than before since many commercial airlines from other countries have agreed to provide flight information and thereby implicitly acknowledge its claims to the disputed territory.
Even on the diplomatic circuit the issue has had a limited airing.
On Friday, as several uniformed officers of the People’s Liberation Army stood shoulder to shoulder with Japanese and American diplomats at a buffet lunch hosted by the Japanese embassy in Beijing to celebrate the birthday of the Japanese Emperor, there was no hint that their countries could be one mid-air collision away from armed conflict.
Meanwhile, back at the Beijing military museum on Sunday, 26-year-old Beijing native Song Guotao made clear that the relative apathy of ordinary Chinese people towards the latest standoff has nothing to do with a more tolerant attitude toward their neighbours.
“This is our territory and Japan is truly a barbaric country,” he said.
Mr Song said he had learnt a lot about the current tensions over the air defence zone thanks to his searches on the internet rather than from state media.

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China’s gradual expansion in the East China Sea poses a challenge for Japan

By Chico Harlan

Rocking the boat: Ships from China's State Oceanic Administration, the Japan Coast Guard and boats carrying members of a Japanese nationalist group sail in Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands. In the foreground, a Japan Coast Guard cutter stays between a Chinese vessel at left and a boat carrying the Japanese citizens.

TOKYO — When a half-dozen Chinese patrol vessels entered Japanese waters 14 months ago, Japan’s then-prime minister called an emergency meeting.
The Chinese ambassador in Tokyo was summoned for a tongue-lashing.
A Japanese government spokesman described an “invasion” of “unprecedented scale.”
The vessels eventually backtracked, but the episode signaled the first stage of China’s fundamental maritime strategy — one in which it forges into new areas, withstands the initial fury, and turns groundbreaking gambits into commonplace activity.
In most cases the strategy has worked.
Chinese boats now cut through waters around Japan-administered islands almost weekly, drawing complaints from Tokyo but not alarm.
For Japan, China’s piecemeal advance through contested territory represents perhaps its greatest defense challenge since the end of World War II.
Although several Asian nations have tried to curb China’s expansionist ambitions, some experts feel Japan is best-equipped: led by a competent prime minister, powered by a reviving economy and backed militarily by the United States.
But despite ongoing upgrades to its aircraft and patrol boats and increased coordination with Washington, Japan has yet to find an answer for its increasingly powerful neighbor.
Officials here say China continues to push boundaries, sending fighter jets closer to Japanese shores and last week drawing up a new air defense identification zone, or ADIZ, over the East China Sea.
None of China’s moves, by design, has been provocative enough to spark an armed skirmish.
That partly explains why deterring China has been so vexing for others in the region.
In the South China Sea, China has backed the Philippines away from several contested reefs and shoals by sending waves of increasingly powerful vessels to the area.
Several Japanese officials and security experts say China is now duplicating that strategy in the East China Sea, but with more intensity, because of the frequent use of aircraft.
China is trying to “unilaterally alter the status quo by coercive measures,” Fumio Kishida, Japan’s foreign minister, said in a news conference Friday.
Chinese officials portray their moves as responses to Japanese provocations, particularly Tokyo’s purchase in September 2012 of three contested islets from a private landowner.
But Japanese officials say China’s ambitions at sea go back well before September 2012, and they point to a several-year trend of Chinese activity in the East China Sea.
In 2004 Japanese scrambles against Chinese aircraft occurred roughly monthly, according to Ministry of Defense statistics. By 2007 they happened almost weekly.
This year they’re happening more than daily.
Two months ago a drone was spotted for the first time above the islets.
A Japanese Defense Ministry press official said that its origin hasn’t yet been identified, but “if you take its flight path into consideration, it is possible to suspect it is a drone of China.”
The trend “testifies to a long-term increase in Chinese military activity in the maritime domain,” a foreign ministry official said, requesting anonymity to discuss the situation.

Japan’s military limited
If China has been increasing its maritime presence for more than a half-decade, Japan has had to catch up. Until several years ago Japanese leaders almost never described China as a threat.
Through 2010, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces were positioned primarily to defend against a Russian invasion from the north.
Japan’s reversal has been swift. A new defense strategy three years ago reorganized troops, placing more emphasis on perimeter islands.
Japan is now updating that strategy, and initial recommendations call for the introduction of a Marines-like unit and the eventual use of unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, for surveillance.
The Defense Ministry’s budget request for 2014 calls for upgrades to surveillance equipment and the purchase of new patrol aircraft.
Though China’s announcement last week of its air defense identification zone threw a spotlight on the airspace above the East China Sea, much of Japan’s spending was already geared to aircraft upgrades.
The Air Self-Defense Force budget is set to rise 7 percent in 2014.
Japan has some of the world’s most modern technology for surveillance and deterrence, military experts say. But its problem would come if ever there was an armed conflict, barred by its pacifist constitution from having key offensive weapons like long-range missiles or traditional aircraft carriers.
Japan’s largest ship, the Izumo-class destroyer, can only carry helicopters.
“That’s definitely a weakness,” said Masashi Nishihara, president of the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Tokyo.
Before taking office one year ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talked about removing some of the restrictions on the military.
But that would require contentious constitutional revisions, and Abe, in office, has instead channeled his energy into patching up relations with others in the region who were ignored by his predecessors.
Abe has visited every member of ASEAN in what some experts say is an attempt to isolate China.

War of words
For countries on the periphery, China and Japan have been hawking dueling narratives about their conflict. Military expert Li Jie told China’s Global Times that the United States and Japan had been “defiant” in refusing to cooperate with the Chinese edict that all aircraft in the new aerial zone relay flight information to Beijing.
A separate editorial in the China Daily said Beijing has every right to adopt an “internationally common practice.”
Japan, meantime, has said it’s taking a stand against a “unilateral” move, and that other countries should share Japan’s concerns about freedom of navigation in international airspace.
In the short term, some experts in Tokyo say, China’s announced aerial zone might have backfired, drawing strong rebukes from the Australia, South Korea and the European Union and prompting a flyover of U.S. unarmed B-52 bombers.
But the real test for China’s strategy comes after the initial shock has waned.
“For the time being, things seem to be quite favorable to us,” said Narushige Michishita, an associate professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.
“But the question is how long this will last. China has been creating a gradual fait accompli, step by step, which is a pretty smart tactic. We make a big deal of this now, but we’ll forget about it after a while.”

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Paper Dragon

US forces operating 'normally' in China air zone. Japan and South Korea both disregarded the ADIZ, showing a united front after US B-52 bombers entered the area.
AFP

Beijing — US military chiefs have insisted they will not change their operations despite China scrambling fighter jets to monitor American and Japanese aircraft in Beijing's newly declared air defence zone.

But the State Department said US commercial airlines should observe China's demand to be given notice of aircraft entering the zone, while stating that compliance "does not indicate US government acceptance of China's requirements".
China flew warplanes into its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Friday, Chinese state media said, nearly a week after it announced the zone, which covers islands at the centre of a dispute between Beijing and Tokyo, raising regional tensions.
The Xinhua report indicated that Japan and the United States are continuing to disregard China's demands that aircraft submit flight plans when traversing the area in the East China Sea or face unspecified "defensive emergency measures".
"We have flights routinely transiting international airspace throughout the Pacific, including the area China is including in their ADIZ," Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said on Friday.
"These flights are consistent with long-standing and well-known US freedom of navigation policies that are applied in many areas of operation around the world. I can confirm that the US has and will continue to operate in the area as normal."
Compliance by commercial flights "does not indicate US government acceptance of China's requirements for operating in the newly declared ADIZ," the State Department said in a statement.
Japanese airlines, under pressure from Tokyo, stopped following China's new rules on Wednesday, after initially complying.
In its evening edition Saturday, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper said Japan's two biggest airlines were unlikely to change their stance even after the US announcement that commercial airlines should observe China's demand.
Japan Airlines said it had "no plan to change our stance at the moment" while All Nippon Airways said it would follow instructions from the transport ministry, the daily reported the two companies as saying.
Chinese air force spokesman Shen Jinke said Friday that several combat aircraft were scrambled to "verify the identities" of US and Japanese aircraft entering the air defence zone, according to Xinhua.

The Chinese planes, which included at least two fighter jets, identified two US surveillance aircraft and 10 Japanese aircraft including an F-15 warplane, Shen said.
Japan and South Korea both said Thursday they had disregarded the ADIZ, showing a united front after US B-52 bombers also entered the area.
Despite the scrambling of jets referred to in China's state media, Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera on Saturday said there were no "peculiar developments".
"We do not recognise there have been peculiar developments that we should disclose such as one where aircraft suddenly came close as the Chinese side announced yesterday," he said.
"We have been making our utmost efforts to be vigilant and we will continue," he added.
Onodera also called on China to use "common sense" over the air defence zone.
"It is important for both sides to respond in a calm manner," he said, according to the Kyodo news agency. "We want (China) to deal with this issue according to common sense in the international community".
Beijing is facing considerable internal pressure to assert itself. 

China's state media called Friday for "timely countermeasures without hesitation" if Japan violates the zone but it shied away from threatening Washington.
Washington has security alliances with both Tokyo and Seoul, and analysts say that neither China nor Japan -- the world's second and third-biggest economies, and major trading partners of each other -- want to engage in armed conflict.
The Communist Party seeks to bolster its public support by tapping into deep-seated resentment of Japan for its invasion of the country in the 1930s.
Such passions are easily ignited, and posters on Chinese social media networks have urged Beijing to act.
China's rules covering the zone require aircraft to provide their flight plan, declare their nationality and maintain two-way radio communication -- or face unspecified "defensive emergency measures".
Both Japan, which denies that there is a dispute over the islands, and Washington have ADIZs of their own, and China accuses them of double standards -- though China's zone includes a rock that is disputed between Beijing and Seoul, as well as islands controlled by Japan and claimed by China.
The European Union added its voice to the criticism of the zone, with its top foreign affairs official Catherine Ashton saying it "contributes to raising tensions in the region".
The Yomiuri Shimbun on Saturday reported that the United States and Japan would issue a joint statement demanding China scrap the air zone during a visit to Tokyo by US Vice President Joe Biden next week. Biden will meet Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Tuesday.

B-52 diplomacy

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Seoul Sees Territory Threat in China Defense Zone

South Korea Wary That Beijing Vying for Advantage With Disputed Rock
By ALASTAIR GALE And JEYUP S. KWAAK

South Korean Vice Defense Minister Baek Seung-joo, left, shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Guangzhong, deputy chief of general staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, ahead of their talks in Seoul on Thursday. 

SEOUL—South Korea's forceful response to China's new air-defense zone despite otherwise warming ties reflects concern over Beijing's apparent move to tilt a long-running dispute over territorial waters in its favor, officials and analysts in Seoul said.
On Thursday, Seoul confirmed that a South Korean military plane had flown into the new Chinese zone on Tuesday without giving prior warning to Beijing, a day after the U.S. challenged the Chinese demarcation with two B-52 bombers.
South Korea also called for China to redraw its zone at high-level defense talks on Thursday and, after the request was rejected, said it would consider extending its own air-defense zone. 

Seoul says it will send further flights into the Chinese zone without advance notice.
The assertive stance contrasts with South Korea's initial response to China's declaration of the zone on Saturday. Seoul expressed concern but said then the issue would be resolved through dialogue.

A senior South Korean government official said that the more muscular approach was driven by Seoul's wish to reassert its claims over contested territorial waters within China's new zone, primarily an area of ocean around a submerged rock claimed by both Beijing and Seoul.
The rock, known internationally as Socotra Rock, and Ieodo in Korea, has been the subject of a dispute running for decades. 

The rock, northeast of Shanghai and southwest of the Korean island of Jeju, is one point of disagreement in a bigger dispute about the drawing of the countries' respective exclusive economic zones, or EEZ.
The rock, around 15 feet below sea level, lies in an overlapping section of the countries' EEZs. 

Under United Nations guidelines, a country has rights over use of marine resources in an EEZ within 200 nautical miles from its shores—but in case multiple countries' zones overlap, they must negotiate the maritime border.
Beijing and Seoul have met to discuss the issue 16 times previously without reaching consensus.

In 2003, South Korea completed the construction of a marine research center on the rock, including a helicopter landing pad.
A spokesman for South Korea's defense ministry the country's navy and coast guards conduct routine surveillance with aircraft around Ieodo about once or twice a week on average. 

The senior government official said Tuesday's military flight into China's claimed air-defense zone was made to demonstrate South Korea's jurisdiction over the waters around the rock.
On Monday, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry said there was no dispute over the rock and the issue would be resolved through dialogue.
South Korea's shift from its initially restrained response highlights the domestic pressure it faces with regards to territorial sovereignty, said Kim Han-kwon, director of the Center for China Policy at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank.
Though the Chinese air-defense zone isn't set under international law—and has no impact on territory—South Korean politicians and media have treated China's move as an incursion, helping drive a stronger reaction from the government, Mr. Kim said.
"None of the countries (involved in the regional dispute) can step back at this point" or risk losing face, he said.
In addition to the dispute over the rock, South Korea has protested China's move to create 3,000 square kilometers of overlap in the two countries' air-defense zones in the East China Sea. 

After a senior Chinese military official rejected South Korea's demand for Beijing to redraw its zone, his South Korea counterpart said Seoul may increase its own zone, potentially creating further overlap.
The spokesman for the defense ministry in Seoul said the issue of extending South Korea's air-defense zone was under review but declined to provide further details about where it might be increased.
The dispute marks a sharp turn after months of progress in developing closer political and economic ties between Beijing and Seoul. 

During a state visit to Beijing by South Korean President Park Geun-hye in June, the two countries signed a number of agreements and are in discussions about a bilateral free trade agreement.
Ms. Park's personal interest in the Chinese language and culture has also been warmly received in China. South Korea has prioritized ties with China over Japan, which remains in dispute with Seoul over long-running historical and territorial issues.

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China looks to redraw Asian airspace

      

By Demetri Sevastopulo in Hong Kong

When China created a controversial “air defence identification zone” last Saturday, it sparked alarm about the rising risk of Sino-Japanese conflict over the Senkaku Islands.
But while the focus has been on the Japanese chain, China also said in the same statement it “will establish other air defence identification zones at the right moment after necessary preparations are completed”, raising the spectre of tensions spreading across the region.

The Senkaku spat has attracted much attention over the past year because of the potential for war between Asia’s two biggest economies.
But China is engaged in a number of equally contentious territorial disputes with Southeast Asian nations – particularly the Philippines and Vietnam – over the resource-rich South China Sea.
Ian Storey, a security expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said the most obvious candidates for any new Chinese air defence zones were the northern part of the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea.
Chinese maps often include a controversial “nine-dash line” that loops the South China Sea, running close to the coasts of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, and stretching south to Indonesia.
It first emerged in a 1947 Republic of China map that was later used by the Communist government of Mao Zedong when it came to power in 1949.
While some Chinese scholars say China does not claim the entire South China Sea, the use of the map has sparked concern among Southeast Asian nations.

China last year started issuing passports that included an image of the “nine-dash line”, provoking angry responses from Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Mr Storey said China would probably not create an ADIZ for the whole South China Sea, saying it would be “absolutely outrageous” if they included the whole area inside the “nine-dash line”.
Instead, he said China was more likely to establish a zone in the northern part of the sea, and particularly surrounding Hainan Island.
Hainan hosts the Chinese navy’s South Sea fleet – one of its three naval fleets – and also a new generation of nuclear submarines that are an increasingly important part of China’s naval capabilities in the South China Sea.
But Mr Storey added that creating an ADIZ over even some of the South China Sea would be “unnecessarily provocative” at a time when China is trying to reduce tensions with its Southeast Asian neighbours.

In October, Chinese President Xi Jinping took advantage of the absence of US President Barack Obama at the Apec summit in Indonesia to launch a charm offensive with Southeast Asian countries, including by floating the idea of creating an “Asian infrastructure bank” to promote development in the region.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang then embarked on a tour of Southeast Asia that was widely seen as an effort to repair relations.
The creation of an ADIZ over the South China Sea would be unlikely to generate the same kind of military response that occurred this week when the US flew B-52 bombers near the Senkaku without alerting China – mainly because, with the exception of Singapore, most Southeast Asian nations have limited air power.
But Gary Li, a senior analyst at IHS maritime, said a Chinese ADIZ in the northern South China Sea would be “very, very sensitive”.
He said it would almost certainly overlap with Vietnam’s ADIZ, which reaches north to about 100km from Hainan Island, and includes the disputed Paracel Islands.
Mr Li said the Yellow Sea was also a contender for a new Chinese ADIZ.
China has repeatedly criticised the US and South Korea for holding joint military exercises in the Yellow Sea, which lies between east China and the Korean peninsula, and particularly so when the US sails its aircraft carriers through the area.
Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, a think-tank that advises the Chinese foreign ministry, said that while China had the right to create new zones, it would take its time.
“We cannot rule out the possibility of setting up new ADIZs, but not in the short term,” said Mr Wu.
“Given the strong reaction from the international community to the East China Sea ADIZ, China will further evaluate when and how to set up new ADIZs. But it will happen sooner or later, since it is related to its national security.”
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University, agreed that China was unlikely to create a zone in the South China Sea anytime soon, mainly because Beijing does not see the same urgency, but he said that could change if “confrontations in the South China Sea escalate”.
China and Japan had for decades put the Senkaku dispute to the side.
But Beijing reacted angrily last year when Japan bought three of the islands from their private owner, in a move that sparked anti-Japan protests across China.
Mr Li said China probably decided to create an ADIZ – which other countries such as Japan and the US did long ago – because Tokyo has routinely pointed to the number of Chinese incursions into Japan’s zone as a way to rally public support.
“That caused the Chinese side to say we need to get one too. There is a huge PR war here,” said Mr Li.

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China's Latest Territorial Moves Renew Fears In Philippines

by FRANK LANGFITT

U.S. and Philippine navy personnel patrol the seas off a naval base west of Manila in June as part of joint exercises.

China is flexing its muscles these days. 

Over the weekend, it declared a sprawling air defense identification zone that covers disputed islands controlled by Japan. 

And it has sent its lone aircraft carrier for first-time trials in the South China Sea, where Beijing has territorial feuds with other neighbors, including Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines.
None of this was making China any friends in Manila, where the Chinese government is particularly unpopular these days.
"It only tends to confirm and reinforce the fears and worries of many people in the region," says Jay Batongbacal, a University of the Philippines law professor, who has spent a decade and a half studying territorial disputes in the South China Sea. 

"Right now, I think they are seen more as a bully, because of the actions that they've taken."
Among those actions was last year's takeover of a disputed and potentially strategic shoal in the South China Sea that had been under Philippine control.
It started when Philippine authorities tried to arrest Chinese they accused of illegally fishing inside the shoal, which is really a shallow, triangle-shaped reef with a small opening at one end. 

China sent marine surveillance ships to block action by a Philippine navy frigate.
"One of the measures that they put in place was to string a line across the mouth of that entrance," says Batongbacal, "because if any vessel tries to cross that line, it will get entangled in the propellers."
The Chinese effectively sealed off the reef from Philippine fishermen and took control of Scarborough Shoal without firing a shot.
The shoal, rich in fish, is about 140 miles from the Philippine mainland and more than 500 miles from China. At high tide, only five rocks stick up out of the water, but Philippine officials worry China might one day declare them Chinese territory.
Batongbacal says in the worst-case scenario — from the Philippine perspective — China could turn the shoal into a safe harbor for Chinese government vessels and a way to extend its influence and power in the region.
"Right now, it's clear that their motivation is that they want to vindicate their claim to the entire South China Sea," Batongbacal says.
A huge amount of trade and oil passes through the South China Sea, which China has claimed since the 1940s. Back then, though, it was militarily too weak to do anything about it. 

Today, China is the world's No. 2 economy and a rapidly rising military power.
Dindo Manhit, president of Stratbase Research Institute, a strategic think tank in Manila, says China now wants to ensure it has a major say in what happens in the South China Sea. 

Like all economic powers, Manhit says, China wants to spread its influence.
"At the end of the day, any economic influence needs to be protected by either strong military or political influence," Manhit says. 

"I think that's where it's coming from."
Chito Santa Romana, who spent nearly four decades living in China where he served as the bureau chief for ABC News, thinks it also comes from a desire to restore China, which means "Middle Kingdom" in Mandarin, to what it sees as its rightful place as a respected global player.
"I would attribute it to what I call the resurgence of the 'Middle Kingdom Complex,' " says Santa Romana, who works in Manila with a think tank, trying to forge understanding on the South China Sea dispute between the two countries. 

"The 'China Dream' that the Chinese talk about, they want to recover the glory that was lost when they were a pre-eminent power."
The U.S. has dominated East Asia militarily for decades, ensuring the peace and security that allowed the region's economies to grow so rapidly. 

The Philippines hopes America will back it up if its dispute with China turns violent, but some worry Washington's deep and complex ties with Beijing will win out in the end.
"We just hope and expect that the U.S. remembers us really as the true ally here," says Manhit, "because some people are saying that in a conflict between China and the Philippines, the U.S. will choose China because of the economic relationship."
Jay Batongbacal, the University of the Philippines law professor, says turning its back on a longtime ally with whom it has a mutual defense treaty would have serious implications for America and its other diplomatic relationships. 

Most people in the Philippines are hoping it never comes to that.

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China has thrown down a gauntlet to America

Beijing has turned control of the air space around the Senkaku islands into a test of the US

By Philip Stephens

At first glance, Beijing’s designation of an air defence zone in the East China Sea marks a calibrated escalation of its longstanding dispute with Japan about sovereignty of the Senkaku islands. 

A more worrying, and plausible, interpretation is that Beijing has decided to square up to the US in the western Pacific. 

East Asia is looking an ever more dangerous place.
When Xi Jinping met Barack Obama in California this year, the Chinese president told his US counterpart the Pacific Ocean was large enough to accommodate two great powers. 

The inference was that the US and China should divide the spoils. 

Also implicit in the remark, though, was that China would not accept a status quo that saw the US remain the Pacific’s pre-eminent power. 

At the summit, Mr Obama sidestepped the issue. 

Now it seems Mr Xi has decided it is time for China to start grabbing its share.
The Senkaku have been administered by Japan since the late 19th century, apart from a spell of US control after the second world war. 

China staked a claim during the early 1970s, but for decades did little to press its case. 

Since the 2008 Olympics, Beijing has adopted a more assertive approach, making regular incursions into the disputed territory’s sea and air space. 

This has prompted a US warning that the area is covered by the US-Japan mutual security pact.
This US commitment is now being tested. 

The question Beijing seems to be asking is how far will Mr Obama go to uphold the existing order. 

China’s strategic objective is to push the US away from its coastline and establish its suzerainty in the East and South China seas. 

Does an America exhausted by wars in the Middle East have the political will to risk conflict in Asia in order to defend a few uninhabited rocks? 

It was probably no accident that Beijing’s timing coincided with one of the most troubled periods of Mr Obama’s presidency.
Washington’s decision to send two B52 bombers into the newly designated “air defence identification zone” – flouting Beijing’s demands to be notified of flights and thereby risking “emergency defensive action” – suggests it understands the nature of the challenge.
Chuck Hagel, the US defence secretary, called the Chinese move “a destabilising attempt to alter the status quo in the region”. 

Other US officials were less diplomatic. 

Beijing, though, is playing a long game. 

The $64,000 dollar question in east Asia is whether the US has the staying power to resist a sustained Chinese push for regional hegemony.
The immediate impact of Beijing’s new flight rules is to heighten the already significant risk of an armed clash with Japan over the islands. 

The Chinese zone overlaps with Toyko’s long-established ADIZ. 

The danger of miscalculation on both sides is far from negligible. 

In Shinzo Abe, Japan has a nationalist prime minister determined not to be cowed by his country’s more powerful neighbour – nor to be over-influenced by private US warnings that Tokyo should play its part in lowering the political temperature.
Mr Abe is looking for an excuse to amend Japan’s constitution to provide it with something more than a defensive military capability. 

A clash, accidental or intended, with China around the Senkaku would provide just such a justification.
This leaves Mr Obama in a distinctly uncomfortable position. 

The US has to make clear to China that it stands behind Japan in the dispute, but at the same time it wants to avoid giving encouragement to Mr Abe to ratchet up tensions in the region. 

Each and every one of China’s neighbours is watching closely to see precisely where Washington strikes the balance between these two objectives.
For the US there is much more at stake than its relationship with Japan. 

Beijing’s stand-off with Tokyo over the Senkaku is one of many territorial disputes between China and its neighbours. 

The new airspace restrictions overlap with the South Korean zone as well as with Japan’s territorial claims. The Philippines is unhappy with Washington for what it sees as a US failure to give it sufficient support in its dispute with Beijing over a group of islands in the South China Sea. 

Vietnam has a separate quarrel with China over its maritime borders.
Consciously or otherwise, Beijing has now turned control of the air space around the Senkaku into a litmus test of the US security commitment to east Asia. 

For Washington to accept the Chinese restrictions would be to send a signal to every other nation in the region that the US cannot be relied on to defend the status quo against Chinese expansionism.
Yet to demonstrate its resolve as a resident east Asian power by constantly patrolling the disputed air space is to accept a new source of friction with Beijing. 

My guess is that Mr Obama, accused of presiding over a collapse of US power in the Middle East, cannot afford to back down over the Senkaku.
Chinese policy makers are nothing if not assiduous students of history. 

The rise of Germany at the end of the 19th century has long featured prominently in the curriculum of Beijing’s foreign policy elite. 

China, these officials tell visitors, will not repeat the Kaiser’s miscalculation in uniting Germany’s neighbours in opposition to its rise to great power status. 

This attentiveness to the past now seems to be taking second place to China’s determination to assert its power. 

History’s mistakes are often repeated.

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